2025 ATP Los Cabos Picks: Why Rublev is the overwhelming favorite

  • What: 2025 ATP Los Cabos (Mifel Tennis Open)
  • When: July 11-19, 2025
  • Time:  8:00-8 PM PST
  • Where: Cabo Sports Complex (Los Cabos, Baja California Sur, Mexico)

The Los Cabos Open, officially known as the Mifel Tennis Open, is a men’s professional tennis tournament held on outdoor hard courts. It is part of the ATP Tour 250 series within the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) Tour and takes place every August in Los Cabos, Baja California Sur, Mexico.

As anticipated for a tournament in Mexico held right after Wimbledon, the lineup at the ATP Los Cabos isn’t filled with the sport’s top stars. However, this has led to an exciting week in Baja California, featuring some unexpected quarterfinalists.

Before we examine the latest tennis betting odds, here’s where you can find the best Tennis Betting Sites 2025.

Andrey Rublev stands out as the top seed, particularly after his early exit at Wimbledon. Meanwhile, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Denis Shapovalov are the other top 30 players competing in the draw.

ATP Los Cabos Odds

To Win 2025 Los CabosBetOnline Sportsbook ReviewBetUS Sportsbook ReviewBovada Sportsbook Review
Andrey Rublev+100+100+110
Denis Shapovalov+280+280+275
Aleksander Kovacevic+700+700+750
Adam Walton+800+800+900
James Duckworth+1400+1400+1200
Juan Pablo Ficovich+1600+1600+1400
Tristan Schoolkate+1600+1600+1400
Emilio Nava+1800+1800+1800

Andrey Rublev

All eyes are on top seed Andrey Rublev in Mexico, especially after his concerning decline in 2025. Falling out of the top 10 is risky since it increases the chances of facing formidable opponents earlier in the Grand Slams.

After being eliminated by Sinner at Roland Garros and losing to Alcaraz at Wimbledon, Rublev’s current position at 16th in the ATP rankings marks a pivotal moment in his career. He has come to Mexico to narrow the gap to those ranked above him.

Throughout his career, Rublev has made it to the quarter-finals of all four Grand Slams, including four appearances in the last eight at the US Open, where he tends to thrive on hard courts.

As the top seed here, he enjoys some protection in the draw, but he also has a target on his back, being the player everyone wants to beat.

He’s the clear favorite to secure his second trophy of the season, with odds of +110 to claim the Los Cabos Open title.

Andrey RublevTO WIN 2025 ATP LOS CABOS
★★★★★
+110
Bet now

Denis Shapovalov

Denis Shapovalov might be a bit underestimated in this draw, as the Canadian has struggled with consistency in recent seasons.

Finding his rhythm is crucial for Shapovalov, as he has yet to fully realize his potential on the ATP Tour. However, when he’s on form, his game can challenge anyone.

His best Grand Slam performance came at the US Open in 2020, and he’ll be looking to regain that level of play on the hard courts five years later, making this event particularly important.

Seeded third in the tournament, Shapovalov will have a few matches to settle in, and if he plays well, he could be a contender for the title in Mexico.

With odds of +280 to win the trophy, Denis Shapovalov is in a good position to compete for the championship here in Mexico. I would place a small wager on Shapovalov to win the tournament at those odds.

Denis ShapovalovTO WIN 2025 ATP LOS CABOS
★★★★★
+280
Bet now

Aleksander Kovacevic

Aleksandar Kovacevic narrowly missed out on securing his first ATP title in Montpellier earlier this year.

At 26 years old, Kovacevic is in search of his first tournament victory on hard courts in 2025. Over the past year, he has a record of 16 wins and 16 losses on that surface.

He boasts an impressive 79.3% winning percentage in service games when competing on hard courts, but his return game has a lower success rate of 21.2%.

Additionally, Kovacevic has converted 58 of his 165 break points on hard surfaces, resulting in a break point winning percentage of 35.2%, which places him 71st in that category.

He likely views this week as another strong chance to achieve that goal.

On paper, he appears to have the advantage over Juan Pablo Ficovich, although Ficovich has played impressively to reach this point.

This suggests that the match could be closely contested and settled by small differences. However, Kovacevic’s potential is slightly greater.

I would pass on Kovacevic in this tournament.

Aleksander KovacevicTO WIN 2025 ATP LOS CABOS
★★★★★
+750
Bet now

Adam Walton

Adam Walton is making notable strides in the rankings. His dominant victory over Nishesh Basavareddy, 6-1, 6-0, to secure his spot in the ATP Los Cabos quarterfinals was truly impressive.

If he can keep up that performance against James Duckworth, he should be able to equal their head-to-head record and remain a strong contender for the title.

This year, Walton has a record of 10 wins and 7 losses on hard courts. He boasts a winning percentage of 77.2% in his service games, having won 159 out of 206, while his winning percentage in return games is 22.6%, with 45 out of 199 games won.

Additionally, Walton has successfully converted 39.5% of his break points on hard courts, winning 49 out of 124, which places him 11th in the rankings.

Walton is a wild card in this tournament and definitely worth a sprinkle. 

Adam WaltonTO WIN 2025 ATP LOS CABOS
★★★★★
+900
Bet now

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Tony Reyes

Tony is a pro sports journalist who dedicates most of his free time to watching the latest matches and games on TV. When he's not participating in sports-related activities or seeing his friends, Tony enjoys outdoor activities such as hiking, cycling, and basketball. In addition to being a sports expert, Tony has extensive knowledge of finances and accou...

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