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Betting strategies vary greatly from bettor to bettor, ranging from simple strategies based on colour to more sophisticated techniques that have been developed over years of testing through sports betting. Today, at MyTopSportsbooks, we will look at the Fibonacci System: a negative progression system for sports betting. We will also touch on a few other mathematical-based sports betting systems to help gamblers gain an edge for their bets to prevent extended losing streaks.
We are talking about a regressive betting system, where you increase your stake with every loss. In theory, losing on your first bet helps you win down the line, and the winnings will surpass whatever losses are incurred. The Fibonacci System is one of the simpler regression betting systems, but there are things you should know about it before adopting it.
The Fibonacci sequence is at the root of the betting system. Once you understand it, you can master regressive betting. Just like the Martingale betting system, your stake will double with every loss.
What is the Sequence for the Fibonacci Strategy
The Fibonacci sequence was introduced to the Western world by Italian mathematician Leonardo of Pisa, who would become posthumously known as Fibonacci, in the 13th century. His theory was based on earlier mathematical concepts from ancient Indian and Arabic sources, and presented in his famous ‘Book of Calculation’ (1202).
The Fibonacci Sequence starts with zero, then one, then one again, then two. The next number in the sequence is the combined value of the two preceding numbers. It looks something like this:
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21…
How do You Use the Fibonacci Betting System
The Fibonacci system is typically used for even-money bets in sports like the NBA, NHL, NFL, or soccer, and is also applied to casino games such as Craps, Blackjack, Roulette, or Baccarat—not to reduce the house edge, but to manage bet sizing through a structured progression.
When using the Fibonacci strategy in betting, you must ignore the ‘zero’ at the front of the sequence since there’s no such thing as a zero-dollar bet. Once you’ve decided to use the Fibonacci system, you must decide on your initial wager to get things off the ground. The amount doesn’t matter, but a rule of thumb is two percent of your entire bankroll and never more than five percent.
There are three rules to adhere to help as a guide when using the system.
Rule One
The first bet is a single betting unit to bet. We have already told you to ignore the zero, so you start at a default of one unit. You choose your dollar value—say $5 to get started—and your inaugural bet is $5 when sports betting.
Rule Two
Your first bet crashed and burned, so your next wager at the sportsbook or roulette table will increase. The following number that falls into the sequence will tell you how much to wager on the second betting unit. If you lose this wager, you continue following the Fibonacci sequence—1, 1, 2—so your next bet is based on the third number, which is 2. That means you double your original $5 stake and place a $10 bet to maintain the progression.
Rule Three
When you win a bet, you move back two steps in the Fibonacci sequence for your next wager. For example, if your current bet was based on the number 13, your next bet would follow the number 5 in the sequence. However, there are two exceptions:
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If you’re not at least two steps into the sequence (i.e., your last bet was at 1 or 2), simply return to the beginning.
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If you’re already in profit overall, reset the sequence and start again from the first unit.
This approach helps cap your exposure after a win and limits risk during streaks.
Does the Fibonacci System Work?
The system contains flaws, but it can help in the short term or the longer term if you can avoid a prolonged losing streak. What happens in this system is that the sports bettor runs out of money. You may go back when you win, but as you lose, you climb higher and higher, as does your financial outlay. This may leave a bettor short to cover the highest of all bets demanded by the numerical sequence. Discipline is the key to using the Fibonacci system. The conceived wisdom is to bet small, and if you lose, cut your losses and withdraw.
Other Mathematical Betting Systems to Consider
Progressive Betting Strategies and Progressive Betting Systems
Using a progressive betting strategy means your bets decide how you climb or descend the betting ladder. On a winning streak, in a progressive betting strategy, you increase the size of your bets in conjunction with your wins. On a losing streak, you reduce the amount of money you are betting and utilize variations of both when betting on sports. And your payouts increase or decrease according to the bet you place.
Using this method, the gambler calculates the odds on offer at different sportsbooks, finds a profit and places a bet. It is said that arb betting is betting on both sides and is considered risk-free betting. The profit gleaned in arbbing is the difference in price in the odds. Bookies and bookmakers frown on arbitrage betting and go to great lengths to police it on their betting sites.
Value Betting
Finding a value bet means finding the least possible risk for the highest possible return on the wager placed by a sports bettor. The gambler views the odds and lines at two sportsbooks and determines which to bet on based on the amount of action the sportsbook is getting. Lines move in accordance with public money, so it stands to reason that a value bet can be found when public money is heavily bet on one team or another. New York teams grab the largest share of value betting based on competitive odds and the occasional free bet from an online sportsbook.
Metrics Betting
This is a data-driven system requiring updates as information changes and how it affects the bets. You can identify excellent opportunities or value bets on the NFL, NBA or NHL in the numbers, but you must track thousands of bets weekly to determine the best bets available. Software like Python or R Studio can aid the serious sports bettor who wants to monitor and use statistics to make winning bets and receive great payouts.
League Data
Using data analysis for information obtained from league sources, you can identify team play trends that translate into sports bets. For example, if the data reveals one NFL team is strong on the pass rush and gets to the quarterback regularly, you might bet on them against a team that throws the ball a lot and doesn’t pass protect well. You can see how offensive and defensive linemen will match up in the grading system. Bookmakers often evaluate the same information that sports bettors do. It boils down to calculations that the bookies use to determine the probability of winning bets for payout at their betting site for NFL, MLB, NBA or NHL bets or casino games like roulette.
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