Guide to Sagarin Rankings | My Top Sportsbooks

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In today’s update, we will look at the Sagarin betting system and how it can be applied to the major sports across the betting spectrum. It will give you expert insight, helping you to feel more confident when placing bets with a system that was developed to take the guesswork out of sports wagering.

Jeff Sagarin, a sports statistician and mathematician, developed his rating/betting system in the early 1980s. While most of his work was initially confined to college sports, it has since spread to other fields. Nowadays, it is one of the major systems that punters use to help develop winning betting strategies across many sports.

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The Basics of Sagarin Ratings

The Sagarin rankings system is a computer-generated model which was initially based on two ‘ratings’: Elo (concerning an opponent’s strength) and BLUE (Best Linear Unbiased Estimator; concerning the probable margin of victory). However, Sagarin has since abandoned these rating systems in favor of three categories, which are used to define the computer rankings that feature on ESPN’s coverage of college basketball games. These are:

The Predictor: a system that looks at game scoring and nothing else.
The Golden Mean: another scoring-based system whose equations are not publicly available (making it difficult to see the similarities between this system and the Predictor system).
Recent: A system in which greater significance is placed on recent games than those that took place earlier in the season.

Under the Sagarin rating system, these three systems are combined to determine an overall rating. A sports bettor using this strategy would take the rankings for both teams, compare them against each other, and add the home advantage bonus to the home team’s ranking.

The home advantage bonus varies from sport to sport, and varies as the season goes on. For example, the home advantage bonus for college basketball is four points, whereas it’s only three points in college football.

Sagarin’s rankings/ratings system for college football and college basketball regularly appears in the USA Today. It is also used in other sports like the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NASCAR and golf to qualify and identify potential winners in each sport. You can use the system at any betting site or in Vegas when laying down a bet.

Betting With Sagarin

Let’s use the NFL as an example to show how the Sagarin system can be used in sports betting. Imagine the New England Patriots were visiting the New York Jets in an NFL matchup. Suppose the Patriots held a ranking of 27.50 and the Jets held a ranking of 21.50, making the Jets the underdog in this hypothetical scenario. You’d add three points to the Jets ranking due to the aforementioned home advantage bonus, and it would come out as 24.50. You’d then compare that number to the Patriots’ ranking of 27.50, resulting in a three-point Patriots advantage for the margin of victory.

You’d take the same approach when applying the rankings to the NHL and NBA. Let’s look at an NBA example to demonstrate how Sagarin works in pro sports. Imagine the Los Angeles Lakers were visiting the New York Knicks who had a home-court advantage. In this example, imagine the Lakers held a ranking of 92.50, while Knicks held a ranking of 90.50. While you might assume a Lebron James team would be favored, the three-point home bonus advantage would give the Knicks a slight advantage i the rankings system (93.50 vs 92.50).

In the NHL, the home bonus advantage is significantly less. Imagine the Dallas Stars were visiting the New Jersey Devils, and the Stars had a rating of 4.42 while the Devils had a ranking of 4.0. You’d add the 0.26 home advantage bonus to the Devils’ total, giving you 4.26. The favorite, in this case, continues to be the Stars, as their ranking is higher even after the home bonus advantage has been added to the Devils’ ranking.

Using Sagarin for NCAA College Football

Suppose we factor in the most recent college football rankings that feature the Ohio State Buckeyes against the Michigan Wolverines. For example, OSU holds a ranking overall of 94.50 and a recent ranking of 92.50. On the other hand, Michigan has an overall 94.50 and a recent ranking of 93.50. You add the home bonus advantage to the Michigan total – overall 97.50/recent 96.50 – and you see that Michigan is the favorite in both scenarios. You can see how this will be helpful in placing NCAA Football bets.

Using Sagarin for NCAA College Basketball (NCAAB)

Let’s take you through a Men’s College Basketball betting example to highlight the Sagarin system with the accompanying spread we mentioned earlier in the article. Suppose the University of North Carolina Tarheels is hosting the Kentucky Wildcats in a Division I game during the regular season. The power rating example for UNC is 89, and the rating for Duke is 87. It looks like a tight contest, and UNC is the best team. Then we add the home bonus advantage to the UNC rating – four – and UNC has a rating of 93. Then we take the Duke rating of 87 and subtract it from the UNC rating, leaving the Tarheels the favorite by five. For NBA ratings, you use the same formula in the Sagarin system to determine what may be a winning bet. Much of the college power rankings are based on strength of schedule and common opponents like the Kenpom ratings system developed by Ken Pomeroy.

Using Sagarin Ratings for Other Sports

When we look at the application of Sagarin, one thing stands out; it is used for team sports. But you can use it for individual sports, like golf. If you visit the Sagarin website, you will see golfers ranked and how they will fare when pitted against each other with the advantages identified in the system. The lower the golfer shoots, the better the ranking based on average strokes per 18 holes. Hence a player who averages 66 per 18 will be better than a player who averages 68 per 18 holes.

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Tips for Betting Using the Sagarin System

The system’s success rate is 75 percent, and 53 on the point spread bets. No betting system or betting strategy is perfect, but the Sagarin system is a reliable predictor to help sports bettors place their wagers. The system can be used for Moneyline bets and point spread action, but don’t put blind faith into it as we know things can happen during games that change outcomes, like injuries.
Now that we have mentioned injuries, this is the key weakness of Sagarin. It makes no allowances for players going down before or during a game. The system takes the points and the points only into consideration.
Another factor that comes into play when assessing two teams is the human factor. If we refer back to an NCAA college basketball example, a team playing for a tournament birth – March Madness or NCAA tournament – has a lot to play for as opposed to a team that has qualified or is out of contention come game time. Motivation is essential and an excellent tool to use when looking for a value bet.

Pros and Cons of Sagarin

Pros:

The system has been used for decades with outstanding reliability and is popular with bettors.
It doesn’t charge a fee to use the ratings, and the system is simple to understand and easy to use.
You can follow four different pathways using Sagarin, allowing the bettor to pick the most reliable one for their purposes

Cons:

Because the system is based on cold hard numbers, star player injuries before the game have no influence. Sportsbooks, and oddsmakers, on the other hand, move Heaven and Earth to adjust the line when a star player goes down, but they have skin in the game and stand to lose a bundle if the lines don’t move.
Sports bettors aren’t a trusting group by nature, and since Sagarin has never published the calculations, some are uneasy about using the system.
The Sagarin system is good for novice and experienced bettors alike, as it takes the emotion out of sports betting and backstops it with math. Like anything, math has limitations, and total dependence on the system isn’t recommended, but using Sagarin as a complementary strategy can be more than effective for your sports bets.

Sagarin Rating FAQs

Find answers to common questions bettors like you have when researching which sportsbook to join.

How do you use Sagarin Ratings?

Sagarin Ratings are a popular tool used by sports enthusiasts to predict the outcome of upcoming games. To use Sagarin Ratings, first determine which sport you’re interested in and go to the corresponding Sagarin Ratings website. From there, locate the rating for each team and analyze the stats. The team with the higher rating is generally considered the favorite to win. However, it’s important to keep in mind that other factors such as injuries, weather conditions, and other situational circumstances can impact the outcome of a game. Therefore, while Sagarin Ratings can be helpful in predicting game outcomes, it’s important to use them in conjunction with other research and analysis to make informed decisions when betting or predicting game outcomes.

How do you read read Sagarin Ratings?

Reading Sagarin Ratings can seem a bit daunting at first, but it’s actually quite straightforward once you get the hang of it. Here are the basic steps to follow:
1. Look up the Sagarin Ratings on the appropriate website or platform. These ratings are typically updated each week throughout the season.
2. Find the team you’re interested in and locate their Sagarin Rating. This number will be displayed next to the team’s name.
3. Compare the team’s rating to their opponents’ ratings. This will give you an idea of how evenly matched the teams are.
4. Use the ratings to make predictions or inform your betting strategy. Remember, however, that Sagarin Ratings are just one tool in your toolkit, and shouldn’t be relied on too heavily on their own. It’s always important to consider other factors such as injuries, recent form, and psychological factors before making any final decisions.

What Is a Sagarin difference?

A Sagarin difference is a statistical calculation used to determine the relative strength of two teams in a particular sport, such as football or basketball. The Sagarin difference is calculated by subtracting the Sagarin rating of one team from the Sagarin rating of the other team. Sagarin ratings are a type of power rating system that uses a mathematical formula to rate teams based on their performance in past games, taking factors such as margin of victory and strength of schedule into account. The Sagarin difference is commonly used by sports analysts and handicappers to help predict the outcomes of upcoming games.

How are Sagarin ratings calculated?

Sagarin ratings are a system used to rank sports teams based on their performance over a season. The ratings are calculated using a mathematical formula that takes into account factors such as the team’s win-loss record, the strength of their opponents, and the margin of victory in each game.

The formula used to calculate Sagarin ratings assigns each team a rating based on their performance in each game. The rating is then adjusted based on the strength of the opponent, with more weight given to victories against stronger teams. Finally, the margin of victory is factored in, with larger margins of victory resulting in a higher overall rating.

While the exact formula used to calculate Sagarin ratings may vary slightly depending on the sport or league, the basic principles remain the same. By analyzing a team’s performance over a season, Sagarin ratings provide a valuable tool for predicting the outcome of future games and determining which teams are likely to be successful in the long term.

Are Sagarin ratings accurate?

Sagarin ratings are one of many methods used to rank teams in various sports. Like any ranking system, accuracy is subjective and depends on a variety of factors. Some people may argue that Sagarin ratings are accurate because they take into account things like margin of victory, strength of schedule, and venue. Others may argue that they are not as accurate because they are based on computer algorithms and therefore cannot factor in things like injuries or unexpected player performances. Ultimately, it is up to the individual to decide whether they trust the accuracy of Sagarin ratings or prefer to rely on other methods of analyzing and ranking teams. On average, Sagarin ratings succeed at 75% in predicting game winners and a 53% rate covering the spread.

Are Sagarin ratings still used?

Yes, Sagarin ratings are still being used today. In fact, they are still quite popular among sports fans and bettors who use them to make informed decisions about games and teams. Sagarin ratings are a system that uses mathematical formulas to rate the strength of teams and predict outcomes of sporting events. While there are other rating systems available, Sagarin ratings have a longstanding reputation for being accurate and reliable, and many people continue to rely on them to this day.

Are Sagarin ratings promoted by bookmakers?

It is unlikely that bookmakers specifically promote Sagarin ratings, as there are numerous rating systems used by different sportsbooks. However, Sagarin ratings may be used as one of many factors considered by bookmakers when setting odds and lines for sporting events. It is important for sports bettors to consider multiple rating systems and sources of information when making their wagers, rather than relying solely on one system or the opinions of bookmakers.

Who created Sagarin ratings?

Jeff Sagarin is the creator of the Sagarin ratings, which are a system for ranking sports teams based on their performances. Sagarin is a sports statistician and analyst who developed this system in the 1980s, and it is widely used today in various sports leagues and organizations, including the NCAA. The Sagarin ratings take into account various factors such as strength of schedule, margin of victory, and home/away records to determine each team’s rating.

Is the founder of Sagarin ratings rich?

It is difficult to determine the net worth of Jeff Sagarin, the founder of the Sagarin ratings, as he has not publicly disclosed this information. However, it is fair to assume that he has earned a significant amount of money over the years through his sports ratings and analytics work. The Sagarin ratings are widely used by sports teams, media outlets, and betting companies, which has likely led to financial success for Sagarin. Additionally, he has worked with major sports organizations such as the NFL, NBA, and NCAA, which further supports the notion that he has made a substantial income from his career.

Does the Sagarin rating system consider margin of victory?

Yes, the Sagarin rating system takes into account the margin of victory in games. This rating system, used in particular for college football and basketball, considers various factors including the score differential, the strength of the opponent, and the location of the game. The goal of this methodology is to provide a more accurate representation of the relative strengths of different teams, rather than simply looking at their win-loss records. The Sagarin rating system is just one of many rating systems used in sports, but it is often considered to be one of the most comprehensive and reliable.

Sagarin Betting System – Sagarin Ratings Explained