Kenpom Betting System - Kenpom Basketball Rankings Explained

When the college football (NCAAF) season starts to wind down, that means only one thing: college basketball (NCAAB) is starting to heat up again! Sports bettors everywhere look to the college basketball game for betting action. Every sports bettor has a strategy, and with advanced metrics, the new bet winners are mathematicians.

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Here at MyTopSportsbooks, we will introduce you to the KenPom betting system explicitly designed for collegiate basketball use. More than 350 college basketball teams are playing under the NCAA banner, and KenPom ranks and re-ranks each team regularly to give sports bettors up-to-date information to help them make an educated wager.

The system was devised by Ken Pomeroy (https://kenpom.com/) and has existed since 2002. ESPN and USA Today often reference KenPom efficiency metrics in their preseason content. It isn’t just the NCAA college basketball that the Kenpom rankings apply to.

As is the case with NFL betting and college football betting, statistics are available for offensive and defensive efficiency. KenPom’s No. 1 team at season’s end (pre-tournament) has gone on to win the national championship 4 times: Kansas (2008), Kentucky (2012), Virginia (2019), and UConn (2024).

Schools from the biggest conferences—like Arizona, Michigan, Illinois, Connecticut, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Clemson, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Maryland, Miami, Ohio State, USC, UCLA, Gonzaga, Northwestern, Auburn, Utah, LSU, and TCU—are among the top 50 teams in the Kenpom rankings.

How Kenpom Works

As we stated, 364 teams play men’s college basketball. The site ranks and re-ranks every team on a daily basis with team rankings based on cumulative results of the games played and how the strength of schedule factors into the distillation of the ranking results. In theory, weaker teams sliding in their division standings realize that they have no chance of winning their conference or gaining an NCAA tournament berth.

Teams out of postseason contention may de-emphasize results late in the season. Many of these schools do not have NBA-calibre draft choices, so it is inevitable that they quit late in the season. When bookies or oddsmakers set the odds at sportsbooks, they tend to overvalue marginally better home teams over marginally worse road underdogs.

The lines posted by the sportsbooks come from each team’s Power Ratings that help devise everything from the point spread to halftime scores.

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The Criteria of the Kempom System

The system kicks in the last two weeks of the basketball season (mid-February);
Conference games only;
Teams that reside within the System have a KenPom Ranking of 180-364;
Teams must be from college basketball conferences. Summit League would qualify because these teams play games that are regularly lined by bookies. Teams that are not part of this system, like the Atlantic Sun, Mid-Eastern and Western Athletic Conferences, don’t qualify.
The opening line on the point spread, the HOME team, must be at least -6.0. If the opener is -6.0, and the line moves to -5.0 before you place your bet down; it is not a System play;
Always bet on the visiting underdog, and take the points.
When using the KenPom System, it is best to bet the side early. Oddsmakers are very quick to move the lines based on a few bets taken;
The System is for the regular season only.

Let’s look at a possible exception to the kenpom system. Suppose a team has something to play for, a like Senior’s Night matchup, for the home team. You would want to steer clear of that game due to the game not fitting the tanking criteria mentioned earlier.

Kenpom Betting Opportunties

Profitable system variations
You can bet the first half spread
You can bet the underdog moneyline
You can play the system up to a KenPom ranking of 165
You can buy a half-point on the line
Early birds will play the pre-system, which begins the first week of February.

The Rankings Explained

The analytical stats are based on each team’s offensive and defensive ratings. The way the offensive rating is tabulated is based on the number of points – on average – per 100 offensive possessions. The defensive metric works opposite to the offensive metrics when determining a team’s competitive rating. It is based on points – the average – that the team gives up per defensive possession.

The Kenpom ranking system is based on the point differential when subtracting defensive points allowed from offensive points allowed. By way of example, the North Carolina Tarheels score 90 points per game and allow 67.

Their net ranking would be +23 and make them a favorite in just about every game they play. Other teams like perrenial powers like Kentucky, North Carolina, Indiana, Iowa, Virginia, Kansas, Florida, Tennessee, Duke, Purdue, Wisconsin, Texas, Cincinnati, Louisville, Oklahoma, Alabama, Arkansas, Villanova, Notre Dame are all division I powerhouses that consistently rank highly on the kenpom scale.

One key factor the system needs to consider that sportsbooks do is injuries. If a star player goes down before a big game that might determine who ranks number one in the country, the oddsmakers will panic and push the lines. At kenpom, nothing changes. The sports bettor will have to strike a balance when betting on a team with their star player out and look for value accordingly.

Pros and Cons of Kenpom

Pros:

It is the college basketball bible, used by coaches, oddsmakers and sports bettors
You can find great odds sitting in plain sight
Games with lesser-known teams offer great payouts; you don’t have to bet the chalk all the time.

Cons:

Familiarity breeds contempt, and kenpom is well-known in basketball circles, with big payouts few and far between.
Kenpom doesn’t factor in injuries to the system.
Based on that, blind allegiance to kenpom isn’t the best course of action.

KenPom Betting System FAQs

Find answers to common questions bettors like you have when researching which sportsbook to join.

Is it hard to read Kenpom's report?

Kenpom’s report can be difficult to read for those who are not familiar with statistical analysis or college basketball metrics. The report uses advanced statistics to evaluate teams and players, and the data is presented in a way that may not be immediately understandable to everyone. However, with a bit of patience and research, anyone can learn to read and interpret the report effectively. There are many resources online, such as tutorials and forums, that can help you understand the metrics used and how to interpret the data presented in the report. Additionally, practice is key in becoming efficient in reading the Kenpom report.

What is the KenPom formula?

The KenPom formula is a statistical rating system developed by Ken Pomeroy, a basketball analyst who uses advanced analytics to evaluate college basketball teams. The system considers various factors such as offensive and defensive efficiency, strength of schedule, and game location to produce a ranking for each team. The rankings are used by coaches, media members, and fans to predict game outcomes and evaluate team performance throughout the season. The KenPom formula is considered a reliable and accurate way to assess the quality of college basketball teams, and its popularity has led to its widespread use in the basketball community.

Where do you get your data?

I get my data from a variety of sources, including public datasets, private data vendors, and web scraping. For public datasets, I typically use government sources like the United States Census Bureau or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. For private sources, I look to companies or organizations that specialize in collecting and selling data for research purposes. Lastly, web scraping techniques can be useful for extracting data from websites and other online sources.

What do the Kenpom stats mean?

Kenpom stats are a collection of advanced statistical metrics specific to college basketball, designed to provide a more comprehensive understanding of team and individual performance. Here are some of the key metrics and what they mean:

AdjEM (Adjusted Efficiency Margin): Takes into account strength of schedule and adjusts for home/away games. Represents a team’s overall point differential per 100 possessions.
AdjO (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Measures a team’s offensive efficiency by adjusting for strength of schedule and opponent defenses.
AdjD (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Measures a team’s defensive efficiency by adjusting for strength of schedule and opponent offenses.
Tempo: Measures how many possessions a team averages per game, providing insight into their playing style and preference for a fast or slow pace.
Turnover %: Measures how often a team turns the ball over, with a lower percentage indicating better ball security and decision-making.
Off Reb %: Measures the percentage of offensive rebounds a team grabs, indicating their ability to create second-chance scoring opportunities.

Overall, Kenpom stats can provide valuable insights into a team’s strengths and weaknesses, helping fans, coaches, and analysts alike to make more informed evaluations of performance.

How long has Kenpom been around?

Kenpom is a basketball statistics website founded by Ken Pomeroy in 2002. Pomeroy, a computer programmer and former meteorologist, began using statistics to analyze college basketball and developed a rating system that has become widely used by fans and analysts. Over the years, Kenpom has been recognized as a valuable resource for predicting game outcomes and analyzing player and team performance. Founded in 2002, KenPom has been powering basketball analytics for over 23 years.

Is Kenpom stat usage legal in the United States?

Yes, using Kenpom stats is legal in the United States. Kenpom is a website that provides advanced basketball statistics and analytics, often used by coaches, analysts, and fans to better understand the game. The data provided on Kenpom is not copyrighted, and as such, anyone can access and use it for personal or commercial purposes. It’s worth noting that while Kenpom stats are useful, they shouldn’t be the only factor considered when evaluating a team or player’s performance.

Are Kenpom stats still popular in college sports?

Yes, Kenpom stats are still very popular in college sports. Kenpom is a website that provides extensive statistics and rankings for college basketball teams based on advanced metrics such as offensive and defensive efficiency. These stats are highly valued by analysts, coaches, and fans alike as they provide a more nuanced and accurate picture of a team’s performance than traditional stats like points per game or field goal percentage. Kenpom stats are often cited in pre-game and post-game analysis, and are used by NCAA tournament selection committees to help determine which teams make the cut.

Is Kenpom reliable even today?

Yes, Kenpom is still considered a reliable source for college basketball statistics and analysis. Kenpom (Ken Pomeroy) is a respected statistician who uses advanced metrics to evaluate teams and players, and his website provides in-depth analysis and rankings for college basketball. While no system is perfect, Kenpom’s statistical models have been well-received by experts in the field and are often used by coaches and analysts to evaluate teams and predict outcomes. However, it’s worth noting that no statistical model can account for all variables and unexpected events that can arise during a basketball game, so results should always be taken with a grain of salt.

Do experienced bettors use the Kempom betting strategy?

Experienced bettors may use the Kempom betting strategy, but it really depends on their personal preferences and strategies. The Kempom betting system is a popular method for managing your bankroll in sports betting, but it may not be the best option for every bettor. Some experienced bettors prefer to use other methods, like the Kelly criterion or the Martingale system. Ultimately, the best betting strategy will depend on your goals, risk tolerance, and experience. It’s important to experiment with different methods and find what works best for you.

Where does Kenpon get it's data?

Kenpon is a data analytics company that gathers its data from a variety of sources. These sources include public records, social media accounts, search engines, and other online sources. The company also collects data from its clients, who provide information about their customers and target audience. Kenpon then uses advanced data analytics techniques to analyze and interpret the data, which allows its clients to make informed business decisions. The company is highly focused on data privacy and security and ensures that all data is collected and used in accordance with applicable laws and regulations.

KenPom Betting System – KenPom Rankings Explained