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The new La Liga season is set to bring plenty of drama as Real Madrid and Barcelona look equal candidates for the throne. Star-studded Real have reinforced their roster after several injuries decimated their defense last season. And Barcelona should only improve with such a young squad, but Atletico Madrid waits in the shadows. Read on for expert La Liga betting predictions and explore stats and tips to bet on the 2025-26 La Liga winner.
- La Liga
- 2025-26 domestic season
- 20 clubs play 38 matches each
- Double round-robin format
- ESPN+
2025-26 La Liga Betting Odds
Real Madrid is the favorite to win the La Liga title at (-135), but Barcelona isn’t too far behind. The defending champions are (+120) to win the league again. Atletico Madrid is the only other club shorter than 50/1. Diego Simeone’s side can upset Real and Barca with odds to win of (+800).
| La Liga |  |  |  |
| Real Madrid | -135 | -140 | -135 |
| Barcelona | +120 | +120 | +120 |
| Atletico Madrid | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Athletic Club | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Villarreal | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Real Betis | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
| Real Sociedad | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Celta Vigo | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Girona | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Sevilla | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Valencia | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Alaves | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Espanyol | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Getafe | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Mallorca | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Osasuna | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Elche | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 |
| Levante | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 |
| Rayo Vallecano | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 |
| Real Oviedo | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 |
Want to better understand the futures market? See our soccer betting lines and access tips for La Liga betting 2025.
Real Madrid, Barcelona Favorites in La Liga Winner Odds
Last year’s runners-up, Real Madrid has seen some changes to their roster over the summer. Veteran Luka Modric exits for Milan while Trent Alexander-Arnold arrives to reinforce defenses. Besides those two transactions, the brunt of Real’s overhaul will take place in the month to follow. New manager Xabi Alonso will certainly have his say over the proceedings, which will likely involve more midfield pieces to support Xabi’s build-up style.
The sheer influence of Real Madrid’s finances is apparently enough to make Real Madrid the favorites to win La Liga in the eyes of bookmakers. But the eye test certainly warrants consideration for Barcelona to earn that status, having swept their series against Real Madrid last term. Barcelona did not compete in the Club World Cup, which could have been a useful participation to use as a barometer of their abilities against other elite clubs like PSG.
Barcelona themselves have completed some additions to their roster as well, including erstwhile Espanyol goalkeeper Joan Garcia. Garcia will fight for the starting spot between Marc-Andre ter Stegen. Barca are also in advanced talks with Arsenal over the rights for Thomas Partey. Liverpool winger Luis Diaz is also a top target of La Blaugrana.
Can Atletico Madrid Recreate 2020-21 Championship Run?
Ever the dark horse in Spanish soccer, Atletico Madrid is back in the mix again. Last year’s 3rd-placed side met expectations but did not exceed them. Now pegged to finish in a similar spot, Diego Simeone & Co. hope they can recreate the magic of 2021, when they won the title just 2 points ahead of Barcelona.
While Rodrigo de Paul appears to be taking his talents to South Beach, the core of Atleti is set to return. Antoine Griezmann, Jan Oblak, and Julian Alvarez will look to make another run for gold, with only more periphery players on the block this summer. This group at one point looked like they could be revered in Atleti history, seriously contending for the title and the Champions league.
Wins away at PSG and Barcelona proved their mettle amongst elite European competition, but it quickly fell apart. Disappointing results against Real Madrid and a UCL exit on penalties doomed the term. The most frustrating aspect of it all was that last year felt like the golden opportunity. Real Madrid and Barcelona both finished far off a typical title-winning number. For Atleti to win a title, the winning points total will likely need to be under 90.
To predict next season, I use an expected points model that uses expected goals to determine how many points a team “should have” accrued. In 2025-26, my model projects Barcelona to finish with 89 points, Atleti with 85, and Real with 82. In this case, it is easy to see where the value lies. At (+800), Atletico Madrid are severely underrated by bookmakers. Make no mistake: this is a three-horse race.
Put a little bit of money on Atletico Madrid to win the title at (+800). However, if you see any sportsbooks offering Real Madrid NOT to win La Liga or “The Field” vs Real Madrid, I would rather attack that angle. I think there is a slim amount of value on Barcelona to win as well, but not nearly as much as Atletico Madrid.
Athletic Club vs Villarreal: The Race for Champions League Spots
As was the case last year, Athletic Club and Villarreal will be in a tough fight for Champions League positions. Typically, La Liga gets four automatic Champions League group stage qualification positions, which go to the top 4 on the table. But because of Spanish clubs’ recent success in European competition, the league was awarded a 5th spot. Villarreal took that place after tying Athletic Club on 70 points.
Athletic Club earned the tiebreaker nod based on head-to-head goal difference. 2025-26 could very well see a similarly close race, this time with that 4th spot being the most important. My projections have Athletic Club finishing with 75 points and Villarreal with 73. There isn’t much outside competition, in my opinion. Celta Vigo are the next closest in my rankings with 64 projected points.
I think both of these clubs have value to finish in the top 4. You could bet on both, hoping they both finish in top 4, or at least one does and you still profit. You can also look for a “Top 5 Finish” market. Or if you have a preference on one over the other, you can shoot a silver bullet. Either way, there is value on backing these clubs.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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