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Inter Miami hosts Cincinnati at Chase Stadium in Fort Lauderdale this weekend in a pivotal meeting. Hot on the tails of their guests, Inter Miami sit seven points away from Cincinnati in the East with three games in hand. A win for Miami could turn the tides, but will Messi get the chance to play? Read on for an expert Inter Miami vs Cincinnati prediction and explore stats and tips to bet on the MLS in 2025.
- Major League Soccer
- Inter Miami CF vs FC Cincinnati
- Saturday, July 26, 2025
- 7:15 PM EST
- Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, FL
- MLS Season Pass on Apple TV, Fox Sports 1
Inter Miami vs Cincinnati Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
Inter Miami are the odds-on favorites at (-105). That translates to an implied winning probability of 51.2%. The visitors are (+235) to win the match and extend their lead atop the Eastern Conference. A draw pays out at (+330) across our top online sportsbooks.
MLS 
Inter Miami -105 -110 -110 Cincinnati +228 +235 +235 Draw +330 +330 +330
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting lines and explore 2025 MLS betting sites.
Will Lionel Messi Play vs FC Cincinnati?
The MLS All-Star Game took place on Wednesday night without Lionel Messi or his teammate Jordi Alba. The absences are notable as MLS rules state All-Stars that do not participate, and without a documented injury, are subject to an immediate one-game suspension. That would leave Inter Miami without their two key midfielders ahead of a critical match with Cincinnati.
But the MLS has yet to decide if they will go through with the suspensions after all, meeting with Inter Miami officials presumably over details regarding the injury risk of the two of them playing. If Inter Miami can prove that Messi and Alba face heightened risk of injury or are already dealing with some currently unknown injuries, perhaps the MLS gives them the benefit of the doubt. The ruling will be controversial regardless and a major talking point ahead of the weekend. Saturday’s game is difficult to call without knowing the statuses of the two former Barcelona stars.
With the sword of Damocles hanging over them, Inter Miami will look to defend home turf against Cincinnati. Along with Philadelphia and Nashville, the two clubs facing off this weekend in our featured match are favored to compete for the Eastern Conference title. That could make this edition of the fixture a possible title decider. If Inter Miami are without Messi and Alba, their winning odds will drop dramatically.
Cincinnati Leading the MLS Eastern Conference
Cincinnati sits atop the Eastern Conference with 48 points, good enough to lead the Supporters’ Shield race as well. After a drop in performance in 2024, Cincinnati is back where they left off in 2023, Supporters’ Shield champions. The last 3 seasons have been a dramatic shift from their first 3 years in the MLS when they languished in the bottom ranks of the league.
The reverse edition of this fixture took place less than a fortnight prior to this weekend’s scheduled meeting. Cincinnati demolished Inter Miami 3-0 at TQL Stadium. The clean sheet marked the first time Inter Miami was held scoreless in two months of domestic play. Cincinnati followed up that rout with another clean sheet in a 1-0 away victory in Sandy, Utah. If it wasn’t for their collapse in the Hell is Real derby, Cincinnati would be bragging about a seven-game win streak.
A record-breaking seven braces in eight games for Messi could be extended if Messi starts, but Cincinnati may be his kryptonite. Surprisingly, Cincinnati does not have the best defense in terms of goals allowed in the East. Four teams have allowed fewer goals, including 11th-placed Toronto. Additionally, my own ratings system scales Cincinnati’s away defense as worse than the league average.
Inter Miami vs Cincinnati Prediction and Free MLS Betting Pick
One of the biggest games of the year could come down to a technicality decided upon by MLS officials. Messi and Alba’s absence from the MLS All-Star Game puts the league in a difficult position and could result in a one-game ban for each player, ruling them out of this weekend’s match. That makes betting on this match tricky without knowing the outcome of the situation.
If the pair of stars are out of commission on Saturday, Cincinnati has to be the side at the current price. A Cincinnati win or draw is lined at near-standard juice, a generous offering against a shorthanded club they beat 3-0 last week.
In the case of administrative benevolence from the league office, however, Inter Miami is available at a discount. My projections indicate a fully rostered Inter Miami should be lined at (-133), comparable to the opening lines across top online sportsbooks. But movement has brought the number closer to even, presumably under the assumption that Messi and Alba are not playing.
That makes the gameplan clear: Keep an eye on the Messi and Alba situation and bet accordingly. If they are ruled in, bet Inter Miami up to (-110). But if they are unavailable, bet Cincinnati to win or draw on the road and continue their purple patch.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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